Rethinking the Profession

    Have you noticed that many commentators have been discussing the long term impact of the present economic crisis on our way of life.  Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University, authored an article in the New York Times a little over a month ago explaining how a recession can change our way of life. A few days ago I heard Dr. Phil opining on the same topic, while reminiscing with great reverence the lessons of the Great Depression.

    To briefly summarize Professor Cowen’s thesis, we are headed for a new reality where thrift and simple pleasures dominate our lives. What does this mean for the practice of law? If what is happening to my former colleagues and no doubt many others out there, the profession’s income is likely to fall as companies cut salaries and benefits. Although some refer to many reductions as deferrals or “temporary” the reality is the previous compensation levels are not likely to return for a very long time. For some that means, well after they had planned to retire.

    Although law schools may see an early bump in applications as the unemployed substitute school for a job, that trend is likely to decline once graduates find that potential post graduate income in many cases is not likely to justify law school, particularly if one is required to incur substantial debt. Eventually, even law schools are going to have to seriously look at faculty costs and class schedules. Perhaps we may see a return to clerkship legal training with formal schooling reduced.

    Society may promote other ways for dispute resolution without the need for the formalism of the legal process and lawyers. Philip Howard’s latest book, LIFE WITHOUT LAWYERS, Liberating Americans from Too Much Law, presages such a change. Who knows even my notion that law must shed its process paradigm for one focused on problem solving will gain more traction as traditional institutions like Harvard are weighted down by a reputation that justly reflects their central role in creating this crisis by producing a torrent of lawyers and businessmen who were incapable of recognizing and controlling risk.

    And yes, perhaps the public may even come to demand that artificial restraints on the practice of law placed on the system by lawyers and judges whose primary focus has been protecting their own interests rather than serving the public come to an end. Crisis presents an opportunity for change, and this profession could use a good dose of change.
 

Is Deflation Really Bad?

One thing lawyers should do is think critically. That requires that you be able to question statements of experts—your own as well as the opponents. So what have the economic experts been telling us? Deflation is bad. Why? Because they claim people will put off spending waiting for lower prices and that will slow the economy.

I think that deflation is great and it would have prevented the crisis we are in. People will not spend until the price they pay equals their consumption value and in a deflating environment that will happen when the actual use value of an item is so high (got to eat or heat my house today) that deferral makes no economic sense.

We should have an economy in which demand is generated by needs of consumption rather than speculation that the value of an item will inflate in value. People bought real estate in Florida in an expectation that it would go up in value even though there was no evidence that rental rates were increasing because there was no demand to occupy the realestate. Banks lent money to people who were high credit risks because they believed that the real estate that secured the loan would inflate in value.

What if that property was deflating? Those loans would have never been given and the excess inventory that far exceeds the needs of consumption would not exist.

So what about my house; it is going down in value. Well, there is no debt on it; I live in it; it still has the same number of rooms and it takes as just as long to cut the lawn. If I sell it, I will get less, but I still will be able to buy the same size and quality replacement.

How about my investments? True they are going down. However, even with a lower numerical amount to reinvest, I actually bought a larger portion of the index funds than I had when my reinvested investment returns were at an all time high a year ago; so I bought a larger fraction of the economy than before even if the numerical value is lower.

Trying to rekindle the economy by attempting to reconstitute inflation is bad policy and it won’t work. The market is telling us that it is adjusting by deflating—that is just the way it is.